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Chip makers, mad rush for 3nm capacity

Date:2024-06-03 13:38:38    Views:684

Apple's new iPhone pulling goods to promote, coupled with a new generation of AI chip demand, and Microsoft, Amazon, Google and other self-developed chip support, the supply chain pointed out that TSMC process leadership, huge capacity support and yield pulling the high three major benefits, driven by the performance of the beginning of the warming up, and the 3-nanometer foundry production capacity, at the end of this year, is expected to reach 60,000-7 million pieces, the annual revenue is expected to break through the 5%, next year, there is a greater chance of achieving Next year, it has a better chance to reach 1%.


The legal person analyzes, in Phaidon, Qualcomm, MediaTek and many other operators scramble to import, will be in the second half of 2024 to enter the 3-nanometer era, it is estimated that TSMC 2024 the end of the single-month production capacity of up to 100,000 tablets, to establish the direction of the mainstream of the process in the long term.


TSMC has received orders for AI chips from major cloud service providers, including Phaidon, Google, AWS, and Microsoft's newest 5nm self-developed chip, MAIA, which is expected to boost the capacity utilization rate of the advanced manufacturing process, according to the company.


Legal estimates, advanced process offer high, 3-nanometer wafer foundry offer close to $ 20,000, volume, price, synchronized push TSMC revenue scale growth, and more industry investment in the film, but also give TSMC the opportunity to improve yields, slope is expected to be steeper than the original estimate.


TSMC's consolidated revenue in October, after a seven-month hiatus, restarted annual growth again, and the monthly growth rate also increased significantly and hit a new high. The company is optimistic that TSMC's outstanding performance in the last three months will reverse the unfavorable situation of consecutive months of annual revenue decline.


CSPs are competing for a once-in-a-lifetime inflection point in computing, with the number of participants in large-scale language models increasing 10-fold annually over the past five years; therefore, CSPs need a cost-effective and scalable AI infrastructure. Legal pointed out that self-research chip is budding, Microsoft's MAIA II, Google TPUv6, AWS's new products are already under development, the future volume and demand will only get bigger, TSMC advanced process will be a big supplement.


Among them, Amazon AWS is not only increasing its Inf2/Trn 1 shipment forecast, but also the customer satisfaction rate of AWS cloud service is still low; Google has scheduled TPU v4 (7nm) mass production in 2023, TPU v5 (5nm) mass production in 2024, and TPU v6 (3nm) mass production in 2025. Several major customers rely on TSMC capacity, whether it is advanced process or advanced packaging, next year will be a healthy year for TSMC.


Samsung Keeps an Eye on AI Orders


As more and more tech companies opt for self-designed AI chips, Samsung Electronics Co. plans to use its advanced nano-silicon process technology to increase AI chip manufacturing sales to about 50 percent of its total manufacturing sales within five years.


Samsung Foundry, Samsung Electronics' semiconductor manufacturing business, recently set a goal of boosting wafer sales from 19% of high-performance computing (HPC) chip orders in 2028 and automotive chip orders to 14% in 2023, up from 11% in the same period.


During the same period, it will reduce mobile chip wafer sales to a low of 30% from an estimated 54% this year.


With the diversification of chip wafer orders, the South Korean chip giant is expected to improve profitability through high value-added chip production.


Both HPC and automotive chips are considered artificial intelligence chips. With the confirmation of chip foundry orders, this South Korean chip industry is expected to improve profitability through high value-added chip production.Both HPC and automotive chips are considered AI chips.


To diversify foundry orders, the company plans to double the number of non-Samsung customers over the same period.


With mobile chip foundry orders accounting for more than half of its total foundry sales, Samsung Electronics relies heavily on its in-house chip developers and subsidiaries, such as Samsung Systems LSI, which develops Samsung's application processor Exynos and image sensor ISOCELL for smartphones.


Samsung Electronics is confident in its foundry business because of a recent increase in foundry orders for artificial intelligence chips, such as graphics processing units (GPUs) and central processing unit (CPU) centers for AI servers and data.


Rumor has it that the Korean chip giant has secured a global HPC giant as a new foundry customer.


According to foreign media reports, CPU giant Super Micro Semiconductor (AMD) is considering commissioning Samsung to produce its next-generation chips at the 4-nanometer scale node.


Some analysts predicted that the South Korean chipmaker could win orders as Samsung and AMD expanded their strategic partnership in April to develop next-generation AP chips. 


Samsung, which still lags far behind global leader TSMC in terms of foundry orders, has also reportedly boosted production yields for its 4nm chips to TSMC levels.


The South Korean company is also expected to benefit from the likes of Google, Microsoft and Amazon racing to develop their own artificial intelligence chips. Because they are fabless, they have to outsource chip production to foundries such as Samsung and TSMC.


TSMC currently uses its 5nm node to produce Microsoft's AI chips. Nonetheless, Samsung could still win foundry orders from the US tech giant later on, considering that the fabless chip company should have the upper hand in price negotiations with multiple foundries.  


Jeong Ki-bong, vice president of Samsung Electronics' foundry business, said on the company's third-quarter earnings call on Oct. 31 that "[Samsung's] reputation and capabilities in foundry are improving" and that it expects "strong annual growth. " 


Samsung's foundry business recorded its highest-ever quarterly orders last quarter, thanks to a large number of orders from AI chip customers.


The key to Samsung's steady growth in foundry orders is its nano chip processing technology, which is essential for producing high-performance, low-power, high-efficiency AI chips.


Samsung plans to advance its 3nm and below nanometer process technology to attract more AI chip customers.


It has high hopes for its next-generation ring-gate (GAA) architecture, which is expected to significantly improve chip performance and energy efficiency.


Jeong said, "GAA is receiving a lot of attention from the HPC industry and we will plan its production based on demand."


It also plans to produce automotive and HPC chips using the 2 nm process node starting in 2026 and 1.4 nm, considered a dream technology, in 2027.



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