A few days ago AMD Chief Technology Officer Mark Papermaster said that Moore's law (Moore's law) is not slowing down or disappearing, and that CPUs and GPUs will get better and better in the foreseeable future. However, to keep it all, the cost will get higher and higher, forcing innovative solutions to become popular, such as small chip designs (chiplet).

Mark Papermaster pointed out that Moore's Law is a guideline to observe the doubling of crystal density in semiconductors every two years, and was proposed by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore (Gordon Moore) in 1965. However, the initially planned doubling rhythm of crystal density was revised to every two years in 1975. It has been in place ever since, and has proven Gordon Moore's remarkable foresight to this day.

However, with the current claims that Moore's Law is slowing down, or even dying, Papermaster says that according to AMD's technical experts, this is not the case. That is, Moore's Law is still on track, but chip technology is becoming more and more complex. In fact, the current to see the next exciting new crystal technology, based on time estimates that it will take about 6 to 8 years before the official debut. And because of the need to constantly improve the crystal technology, making the new technology will be very, very expensive.

Papermaster stressed that the difference now is that in the past, the density of transistors doubled every two years, for chip size and cost remained essentially the same. However, the cost per area of silicon increases with each production node, making the chip more expensive at the same size. Because AMD saw this, it began shifting CPU designs to small-chip technology a few years ago. If small-chip designs are part of the solution to rising silicon costs, then integrating older CPUs and GPUs with dedicated gas pedals will be an important key to lower costs, but higher performance.

Also, GPU acceleration, dedicated functional units and adaptive computing, just like AMD gets from Xilinx. That is, the future will see tremendous innovation in how computing modules are put together, and it will really make computing performance go further. In other words, while crystal density continues to rise in accordance with Moore's Law, chip prices will also become more expensive. This reason forces companies like AMD to use small chip designs to increase yields and thus stop costs from continuing to rise.

Papermaster further pointed out that in recent years Moore's Law is about to disappear the news is widely circulated. Part of the reason is that Intel, the leader in chip production technology, is facing an obvious bottleneck in production technology. However, Intel is not the only chip maker, although it does lag behind, but the wafer foundry major TSMC is still in the leading position to absolutely follow the trend of Moore's Law. While it's TSMC that makes AMD's CPUs and GPUs, others include NVIDIA's latest GPUs and Apple's M1 processors. Currently, TSMC's 5nm node process produces products, including AMD's CPUs and GPUs, that are about a generation ahead of Intel's 10nm node (the renamed Intel 7).

TSMC has also just started production of its 3nm process, and end devices powered by TSMC's 3nm chips are expected to be available in the market in the first half of 2023. After that, TSMC is expected to put 2nm process technology into production in 2025. So, for now, Moore's Law still looks healthy enough, but it's becoming a bit costly to maintain.