TrendForce research shows that the original factory production cuts continue to expand, the actual demand is not clear, and the NAND Flash market is still in oversupply in the third quarter. Seasonal peak season demand will support the second half of the year, but buyers are still conservative in stocking up, suppressing the stabilization of NAND Flash prices.

The average price of NAND Flash Wafer is expected to rise in the third quarter, while that of SSD, eMMC, UFS and other module products will continue to fall due to the slow delivery of goods by downstream customers. It is estimated that the average price of NAND Flash will continue to fall by about 3-8% in the third quarter, and it is expected to stop falling and rise in the fourth quarter.

In terms of Client SSDs, although notebook shipments are expected to pick up slowly in the third quarter, it is still difficult to reverse the oversupply of SSDs.

Some suppliers believe that the main customer demand is not good, the overall pulling weak momentum, in order to achieve the shipment target and tend to aggressively pricing for customer orders, which will bring pressure on the other original factory, so it is estimated that the average price of Client SSDs in the third quarter will be 8 ~ 13% quarterly decline.

In terms of Enterprise SSDs, orders from mainland China have been released in government agencies and telecom industry bids, coupled with the second-tier e-commerce and Internet service provider stocking momentum has turned good, which is expected to drive shipments of Enterprise SSDs to the new platform of the server in the third quarter, further stimulating growth in demand for Enterprise SSD procurement.

Various suppliers of NAND Flash product revenue is still in the red, in the case of NAND Flash prices have been lower than the cash cost, bargaining margins are gradually narrowed, but the benefits of production cuts are expected to gradually appear in the second half of the year, it is estimated that the average price of Enterprise SSDs in the third quarter of the decline will be converged to 5 ~ 10%.

In terms of eMMC, demand is still weak, small-capacity eMMC in the second quarter due to active price cuts by the original manufacturers, almost no room for price drops, suppliers to stop cutting prices to compete, small-capacity eMMC prices are expected to remain flat in the third quarter.

In terms of large-capacity eMMC, if it belongs to industrial control and Chromebook applications, due to less customer usage and stronger bargaining power of OEMs, there is a chance for prices to remain flat, however, most of the large-capacity eMMCs are still purchased by smartphone OEMs, and the price trend will still be roughly the same as that of same-capacity UFS, which is expected to have a possibility of decline.

In terms of NAND Flash Wafer, it is expected that the inventory pressure of OEMs will slow down in the third quarter, and the offer attitude is strong. The contract price in the third quarter has a high chance of bottoming out and rebounding, which will stimulate buyers' willingness to purchase, coupled with advance stocking before the end of the year peak season, it is expected that the demand for NAND Flash Wafer will increase gradually, which is expected to accelerate the balance between supply and demand, and allow prices to continue their upward trend.

In the third quarter, the average price of NAND Flash Wafer is expected to increase by 0~5% quarterly due to the strong attitude of the original factory offer.

TrendForce, a research organization, pointed out in its latest report that, benefiting from DRAM suppliers to start production cuts, the overall DRAM supply bit by bit reduction, coupled with seasonal demand support, reducing supplier inventory pressure, is expected to DRAM average quarterly price decline in the third quarter will be converged to 0 ~ 5%; the relevant company's third-quarter operations are also expected to improve.

However, TrendForce pointed out that the annual inventory of suppliers should still be at a high level, and the pressure of DRAM average price to fall to the bottom and rise this year is still big. Although the production reduction on the supply side will help converge the quarterly decline, the actual time point of stopping the decline and rebound may have to wait until 2024.

TrendForce said that the benefits of the three major original factories focusing on reducing production of DDR4 will be seen in the third quarter, while benefiting from the second quarter of some OEMs due to the low price of DDR4 large quantities of goods, so that the original inventories to get part of the de-emphasis, however, in the third quarter of the trend of the average price of PC DRAM products, due to the DDR4 is still an oversupply of quarterly decline of about 3 to 8%; DDR5 due to the original factories to guard the price, coupled with the buyer demand has not yet been fully satisfied, quarterly decline of about 3 to 8%. Because DDR4 is still oversupplied, the quarterly drop is about 3~8%; DDR5, because the original manufacturer is holding its price and has not yet fully met the buyer's demand, the quarterly drop is about 0~5%.