The semiconductor shortage problem has reached a turning point. The slowdown in demand for semiconductors due to reduced shipments of smartphones and personal computers, etc. is the main reason, and the overall supply of semiconductors is tending to be sufficient. However, there are still tensions in some final product areas such as automobiles. In the case of a possible economic slowdown, the future will turn to semiconductor inventory levels and order adjustment situation. 2021 since the boom scenario also ushered in a watershed.

U.S. Intel's April-June 2022 financial results released on July 28 showed the first final loss since October to December 2017. The main reason for the low performance is the stall in semiconductors for PCs. Chief Executive Officer Pat Gelsinger said: Some major PC customers are reducing their inventories, which was unthinkable in the past 10 years.

The semiconductor industry has a silicon cycle of alternating boom and bust every 3 to 4 years or so. Many believe that this boom, which has continued due to tight supply and demand, has passed its peak.

The first to change is the smartphone and PC. by global inflation and other effects, the final consumption of cold. According to the survey company Canalys projection, April to June global shipments of smart phones fell 9% year-on-year, according to the survey company IDC projection, the global shipments of PCs decreased by 15%. U.S. Goldner said at the end of July: In consumer-related areas, memory demand and pricing weakness, and the semiconductor market growth rate in 2022 from the previous forecast of 13.6% down to 7.4%.

But on the other hand, TSMC, which produces the most advanced logic computing semiconductors, remains strong. The company's sales forecast for July to September 2022 released in July increased by 30% year-on-year. CEO Wei Zhejia believes that inventory levels in the semiconductor supply chain are excessive and that inventory adjustments will continue in the quarters leading up to the first half of 2023.

However, he also said that demand for cutting-edge logic semiconductors remains strong and exceeds supply capacity.

The supply of semiconductors cannot keep up with the strong demand in 2021, resulting in production constraints in various industries. Has the balance of supply and demand returned to normal in a mixed situation of strength and weakness? To track changes in this area by each end product, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun commissioned six professionals, including semiconductor trading companies, experts from research firms, and consultants, to score the tightness of supply and demand for semiconductors, and drew up a hot and cold graph based on the average score.

Semiconductors for smartphones and PCs are already among the areas where there is an oversupply. It is believed that the supply and demand of semiconductors for home appliances have normalized. This is also conducive to the normalization of production of final products, and Sony Group has gradually restarted orders for digital cameras, which were partially stopped at the end of 2021, since the end of May.

However, the tension in semiconductors for automobiles, industrial equipment and data centers is expected to continue until the end of the year. In fact there are still supply constraints. Toyota's production plan for August announced in July was 20% lower than planned at the beginning of the year. Kenji Yamaguchi, president of Fanuc, said, "The overall supply and demand for components is tight, and semiconductors are the biggest bottleneck. The procurement environment for industrial robots, etc. is still tough, "including the use of alternatives to change the design to cope.

President Hidetoshi Shibata of Renesas Electronics said in the earnings release on July 28th "if we look at the macro, the overall supply and demand for semiconductors is balanced and the supply has been sufficient", "demand is concentrated in specific manufacturing capacity and tension is concentrated in some fields and products".

Looking at the delivery period of semiconductor products, we can see the uneven supply and demand movement. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun summarized the information on product groups and lead times for each manufacturer disclosed by Source Engine, a U.S. semiconductor distributor. The average lead time for MCUs used for work control has been high, but the longest lead time has been shortened from February to June. The average lead time for power semiconductors used in electrical controls continues to trend toward longer lead times.

The demand for power semiconductors for pure electric vehicles, etc. is expanding rapidly. Manufacturers have not been able to increase their supply capacity in time, and structural supply-demand imbalances have not been eliminated.

Traditional semiconductor demand has been greatly swayed by consumer electronics products such as PCs and smartphones. The structure in which these products account for the majority has not changed, but new end products such as automotive demand and servers used in data centers are emerging rapidly. Global transportation network congestion is also still not eliminated, and the variables that shape supply and demand trends are still increasing.

On the supply chain side, inventory levels for semiconductors are rising and semiconductor companies have an increase in undelivered orders. It is shifting to an adjustment situation of figuring out how much is really needed and how much supply is needed. The long-running semiconductor shortage is now in a complicated state. After improvement, will the "silicon cycle", which has turned a corner, have a soft landing? Or will it be the bottom of the barrel? A new situation is waiting for the semiconductor industry.