The year 2024 is arguably the largest election year in history, with more than 40 countries around the world organizing 70 elections, and changes in the policies of some countries having geopolitical implications. From Taiwan's perspective, the U.S. presidential election will have a large and far-reaching impact on Taiwan's future economy. In particular, the impact on TSMC has to be observed from whether high-level chip manufacturing can continue to stay in Taiwan and whether subsidies will be canceled.

Taiwan Economic Institute Prosperity Forecasting Center Director Michael Sun analysis, the second half of the year, there are two elections to move to see the view, one is Japan, one is the United States. First, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's three-year term expires in September of this year, the Liberal Democratic Party's support rate of only 25 percent, Japan's political arena will not appear to change, but also in the days of uncertainty.

Sun Mingde pointed out that the past sixty years, the Liberal Democratic Party has been in power for fifty-five years, this year there may be a third change of day, even if it does not change the day, Kishida can continue to be the president is also a problem. “In the past, Taiwan-Japan relations are friendly, many enterprises in Taiwan to invest in Japan, including semiconductor factories. If Japan's change of day, Taiwan factory to set up a semiconductor park in Japan's plans for the fear that there will be changes, “the opposition party and the mainland's relationship is more friendly, which makes Japan's election on Taiwan's politics and economics have an impact”.

In addition, the biggest black swan in this year's market is feared to be the U.S. political situation. According to Michael Sun, Trump's support continues to lead, threatening to affect the U.S. foreign trade strategy. Wu Daren said, the United States accounted for the proportion of Taiwan's exports increased to the current 23%, Trump believes that Taiwan robbed the U.S. jobs, if the U.S. community has this perception is very serious, because robbing the work on behalf of the family income is affected, then the policy will be very xenophobic, and even more comprehensive. Taiwan will face a lot of pressure if it hates all imported products.

In terms of the industrial supply chain, “Biden's policy in these four years is called a small yard with high walls, and there is no comprehensive blockade of the mainland, but it is mainly locked in specific areas, including semiconductors, AI (Artificial Intelligence), quantum computers, etc.”. But Sun said, Trump has not yet been elected, shouting to raise tariffs by 10%, and even raise tariffs on the mainland to 60%, “In the past, the Chinese mainland tariffs raised to 25%, have been a bunch of manufacturers to run, and then what should be done?”

Wu Daren believes that Trump's last term is to destroy the direction of the global supply chain, if he takes office again, the policy is afraid to continue, the division of labor in the supply chain once the destruction of the production costs become relatively high, the pressure on inflation; weak consumption, Taiwan's exports are very unfavorable.

In addition, will “China + One” still be a safe strategy? “From the words and actions of Biden and Trump, they all know that the industry is going to wash the origin.” Sun said Trump will use more ways to force the mainland to move upstream semiconductors and panels as well, so as to prevent Chinese companies from controlling the supply chain.

Mr. Sun said that Taiwanese companies should not think that “China + 1” is a panacea. Taking TSMC as an example, “it was +3, not only to the United States Arizona, but also to Kumamoto, Japan, Germany. In the future, Taiwan may face the problem of whether high-level chips can be left behind. If the U.S. really asks for them, can they really not give them?

Wu Daren also believes that TSMC went to the United States to set up factories to increase production costs, mainly relying on the U.S. government subsidies, if Trump after taking office does not recognize, not subsidies, the future TSMC caused by losses, may have to be made up by other advanced processes.