The epidemic dividend has disappeared, technology manufacturers' happy party has come to an end, and the sky-high inventory piles have knocked technology factories from the clouds to the mortal world. is ready to meet the next wave of very good growth next year".

Although the current scenery is still foggy and misty, the continuous decline in inventory has put down half of the hanging hearts of the technology moguls, including TSMC Chairman Deyin Liu, MediaTek Chairman Ming-Jae Tsai, Dalit Opto Chairman En-Ping Lin, Acer Chairman Jun-Sheng Chen, AUO Chairman Shuang-Lang Peng, ADATA Chairman Lip-Bai Chen and Huabang Electric Chairman You-Jun Jiao, all of whom have changed their minds and said that the bottom of the industry has already appeared.

It is believed that after the low point of the second quarter performance cycle, TSMC can expect to welcome the next wave of growth next year, driven by long-term trends such as AI (artificial intelligence), high-speed and cloud computing.

As for the DRAM price, which has been declining, there is a turnaround. Chen Libai revealed that the DRAM spot price was at the bottom in March this year, and now the price is beyond decline, and the upstream original manufacturers are expected to take the lead in rebounding in the third quarter after reducing production and regulating production capacity. However, the NAND spot price is still huge because of the inventory, the spot price may have to wait until the third quarter to fall to the bottom, the contract price will have to wait.

The panel industry went down quarter by quarter as early as the fourth quarter of 2021. Peng Shuang-lan emphasized that customers had already started to adjust their inventories at that time, and TVs were the first product to be adjusted and therefore the fastest to come up. Overall, the panel industry order has tended to improve, the market supply and demand is healthy, the trend will be better than a quarter.

The dawn of recovery now also shines on the weakest cell phone and notebook markets. Jiao Youjun lamented that the memory industry is now in a more stable state and is expected to bottom out in the second quarter, with the cell phone market taking the lead in warming up compared to other consumer electronics products, the memory industry will do better in the second half of the year than in the first half, and demand will return to normal next year, and stressed that "I am not particularly worried about the second half of the year. Tsai expects that 2023 will be the bottom of the cell phone market, because after the introduction of AI, cell phones will usher in technological innovation and prepare to enter the next cycle, and growth is expected to resume in two years.

DALY LIGHT is looking for growth in the traditional peak season. Lin Enping pointed out that as the second half of the year enters the traditional peak season, customers will put forward some expected values, and the pulling power will be determined by the sales situation at that time, but the revenue in July will be better than that in June.

NB brand factory Acer also gradually felt the warmth of order return. Chen Junsheng said that the PC market, which fell to the point of no good in the first quarter, is now at a turning point in the second quarter, as the overall industry is nearing the end of the inventory clearance adjustment period and the situation of "haunted channel inventory" has passed.

However, other news pointed out that the semiconductor mature process has not seen a significant recovery.

TSMC's advanced process capacity utilization rate has increased significantly, but it does not mean that the overall semiconductor boom is warming up, especially in the most common mature process foundry field, some IC design companies confessed that the first half of the investment volume is still limited, the overall mature process situation has not yet seen a significant recovery, only part of the 28nm high-voltage process because of the supply of OLED driver IC and other applications, the current supply and demand is tight, is a rare exception in the slow market conditions In the rare exception.

From the demand side, IC design houses said that at this stage, there is only basic order demand from downstream, and they are all giving urgent orders, and although the 2nd quarter operation is expected to be better than the 1st quarter, no clear momentum can be seen in the follow-up.

As for the investment strategy, the IC design industry said that the first quarter investment volume has been more than the fourth quarter of last year, the second quarter investment volume is not too much, is for the inventory of the more insufficient items to stock, but also in the digestion of inventory.