Recently, data from several research institutions indicate that the global semiconductor market growth is slowing and the semiconductor market is entering a cyclical shift from hot to cold.

Citigroup data shows that the semiconductor industry is experiencing a downturn as demand shrinks in July and August 2022.

Nomura Securities revised downward the growth rate of global chip shipments for this year and next two years in early September, following a conservative view of the growth rate in late August. In the latest "Global Technology Strategy" report, Nomura Securities will this year's global chip shipment growth rate from the original estimate of 9.9% to 5.7%, 2023 from a recession of 0.5% to a 6% decline.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that by 2023, the net earnings of chip-related companies in the S&P 500 are expected to remain low, and the outlook for the semiconductor industry tends to be gloomy.

IHS Markit also noted that "the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which covers the 30 largest U.S. companies involved in the production and sale of semiconductor products, has fallen sharply so far this year, in line with the trend in our Global Electronics New Orders Index, while demand concerns have also weighed on broader technology stocks."

The weakness in the chip industry is also reflected in the stock market.

Semiconductor shares have been falling amid a series of companies warning of slowing demand for chips used in a range of electronic devices, including cell phones. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen 11 percent in the past four weeks, with shares of Nvidia, AMD and other manufacturers hitting 2022 lows.

According to the latest data from Future Horizons, the semiconductor industry is headed for the biggest recession since the Internet bubble in 2000, and one of the biggest recessions in the history of chip manufacturing.

Combining data from all sides, Future Horizons analyst Malcolm Penn said that the current semiconductor super cycle is finally nearing its end and the 17th market downturn has really begun.

As the chart above shows, at the macro level, the global semiconductor momentum indicator crossed the "death cross" in March 2022, signaling the beginning of the industry storm, followed by a rare downturn in the global semiconductor market in June, witnessing the beginning of the storm.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's integrated circuit production in the first half of this year totaled 166.1 billion blocks, down 6.3% year-on-year, the first time since 2009 year-on-year growth rate turned negative.

Among them, it is worth noting that June is usually a bumper month for the semiconductor market, but this year sales still fell, IC Insights data show that this is the first decline in June since 1976, marking an "unusual" weakness in the chip market.

While many companies are still reporting strong second-quarter results and full orders for future quarters, at the same time, many companies have now begun to acknowledge that these orders are evaporating or could easily evaporate.

Semiconductor market developments are distinctly cyclical in nature. For companies in the industry chain, each cyclical market shift is a screening process for the winners and losers. In the face of the inevitable arrival of the market cycle change, companies should pay great attention to.

At present, the semiconductor market "cut single", "to inventory" and other discussions are increasingly heated, in the face of the upcoming down cycle, for the enterprises in it, how to cross the cycle, to maintain competitiveness, is the key and urgent proposition.